The share of level 3 students in England who went on to a degree, a higher apprenticeship or another higher-level course fell to 63.4% for those who finished 16 to 19 study in 2022/23, the Department for Education (DfE) said on 15 October 2026. That is 1.2 percentage points lower than for the previous cohort and continues a decline from a peak of 67.0% for 2019/20 leavers, who were assessed using centre assessed grades during the pandemic. Progression to higher education or training now sits 3.6 points below that peak.
The official statistics cover students who took A levels, applied general and technical qualifications at state-funded mainstream schools and colleges. A destination counts if it was sustained for six consecutive months in the two years after leaving, here up to summer 2025. DfE has recalculated the series from the 2016/17 cohort on a consistent basis, so earlier published figures are revised. Value-added progression scores are not published this year because this cohort’s GCSE grades were awarded under pandemic arrangements.
Where students went
Of the 63.4%, 58.4% sustained a degree, 2.5% a higher apprenticeship and 2.4% another level 4 or 5 course. DfE’s data file puts the cohort at 399,817 students, of whom 233,487 sustained a degree destination, against 234,353 from a cohort of 393,323 a year earlier, on TED’s reading of the file.
Higher apprenticeships rose 0.1 points and are almost double the 1.3% recorded for 2016/17 leavers. Level 4 and 5 courses continued a slow decline from 3.2% for the 2016/17 cohort.
The share sustaining a place at a top-third higher education institution fell to 16.4% from 18.3% for the previous cohort. DfE ranks providers by the mean UCAS tariff of their intake and counts the high-tariff group, which takes roughly a third of students. In numbers, 65,438 students reached a top-third destination, against 71,981 a year earlier. Selective schools sent 47.0% of their level 3 students to one.
Progression to higher education on other measures
The fall looks sharper than it is because of what this measure counts. Progression to higher education is tracked here only for level 3 leavers from state-funded schools and colleges, only within two years, and only where the destination held for six months. The DfE’s separate participation measures, published in January 2026, follow whole cohorts for a decade and put participation by age 25 at 50.9% for those who were 15 in 2013/14, the highest in that series and 12.0 points above its 2001/02 starting point.
The two series can move in opposite directions because they ask different questions. One counts how many of the latest school and college leavers start and hold a place quickly; the other counts how many people get to higher education eventually, including those who arrive at 21 or 24. A falling progression to higher education rate alongside record participation by 25 points to delay as much as to retreat: more young people working, retaking or waiting before they enrol.
What the fall means for recruitment
For universities the timing matters as much as the trend. The Office for Students reported in May 2026 that UK entrants rose 3.5% in 2024-25 but came in 8.6% below providers’ own recruitment forecasts, while entrants from outside the UK fell 7.7%, in its financial sustainability report. Providers built their budgets on growth in home students that the progression to higher education data suggests is not arriving on schedule from schools and colleges.
The regulator’s scenario modelling makes the stakes plain: in its no-growth case, 163 providers, or 58.4% of the sector, would be in deficit by 2028-29. A school leaver measure that keeps falling is one of the inputs that would turn that scenario from a stress test into an outcome.
Gaps by background and place
Disadvantaged students, those eligible for the pupil premium in year 11, progressed at 56.9% against 64.8% for other students. The 7.9 point gap narrowed from 8.6 points, which DfE describes as the largest disadvantage gap in recorded data, but remains wider than the 5.3 to 6.5 points seen for the 2016/17 to 2018/19 cohorts. For top-third destinations the gap was 9.3 points: 8.8% against 18.1%.
Female students progressed at 66.5% and male students at 59.7%. Black, African, Caribbean and Black British students had the highest overall rate, 79.4%, but the lowest top-third rate, 13.7%. White students had the lowest overall rate, 57.8%, and disadvantaged White students 44.4%. Students at schools progressed at 73.5%, against 49.7% at colleges, where DfE notes more students go into employment. London had the highest regional rate, 75.3%, and the South West the lowest, 56.2%, a gap that widened by 1.5 points to 19.1 points.
What it means
TED analysis:
- A bigger cohort, no more degree students: the cohort grew by 6,494 but sustained degree destinations fell by 866. For universities recruiting English school and college leavers, a larger cohort did not produce more sustained degree entrants.
- The selective end lost most: top-third destinations fell by 6,543, far more than degree destinations overall, which suggests a shift in where state-educated students study rather than whether they study. DfE does not analyse the cause, and the measure covers only state-funded schools and colleges.
- Apprenticeships are the growing route: higher apprenticeships are the only destination type in the measure still rising, and male students take them at almost twice the rate of female students, 3.4% against 1.8%. That matters to universities and colleges that deliver degree apprenticeships.
- Regional cold spots: DfE links the London to South West gap partly to proximity to universities and the cost of travel and rent, and the gap is now widening, which bears on providers weighing outreach, local campuses or partner delivery in the South West.
